Calling Out The Fans

First off let me start by thanking all the fans for their support at the Cal game. You guys were loud and the majority of you stayed the length of the game.

Now let me challenge all of you to help make this the best Nevada team in history.

Today it was announced that the Boise St. v Nevada game on November 26th was sold out. That's awesome. But why haven't the rest of the games been sold out? Stop thinking that the Boise St. game is the only game that matters from here on out. One slip and it's all over.

This isn't an NFL game, tickets are very reasonable. Furthermore of the other games aren't on the day after Thanksgiving. Isn't that supposed to be when you spend time with your family? Well if the Pack is your family then be there for the other 3 home games:

October 9 - SJSU - THIS IS HOMECOMING PEOPLE!
October 30 - Utah State - THIS IS THE HALL OF FAME GAME!
November 20 - New Mexico State - THIS IS GOING TO BE A MASSACRE! (Really now? Who wants to miss a massacre?)

I'm begging all of you to go to the games and get all your friends to go to the games. This might be the year where we get a BCS game and all we're going to have is 2 sellouts? It's Mackay, it only holds ~30,000. Just imagine if we had a real stadium that held 85,000-100,000!

P.S. This might be your only time to see Kaepernick play, as much as we would all love to see him go to the league, the chances of him playing there aren't that high, (sorry I'm a realist).

Moving On Up

This week’s schedule is perfect for a Pack move in the national rankings. After looking at the matchups, I have #’s 21-24 all loosing. Here’s how I see this week playing out:

#21 Texas losing to #8 Oklahoma
#22 Penn St. losing to #17 Iowa
#23 N Carolina St. losing to Virginia Tech
#24 Michigan St. losing to #11 Wisconsin

I also have #16 Miami loosing to Clemson on the road.

There’s also a good possibility that #20 Michigan will lose to Indiana, once again because they are on the road and this Indiana team is good.

What does all this mean? It means if these games go as I’ve predicted Nevada will move up a minimum of 5 spots to #20. With a manhandling of that community college down south, and a poor showing by Michigan, we could be #19. A simple win like last week against BYU will not be enough to take that extra spot. Southern Nevada Community College is a horrible team and anything short of an absolute blowout wouldn’t look good. Notice how there’s 6 1-loss teams ranked ahead of us in the top 25 right now? We don’t win big and moving up will get exponentially harder after this week.

Now #19 South Carolina has a bye week this week, but its still possible to leap frog them and sit at #19 going into the SJSU game on October 9th (now on ESPNU).

There’s also some good news for Boise St. (you should be cheering here), after last week’s Alabama showing, I think there’s a good possibility that #7 Florida can knock off #1 Alabama as long as they start strong and fast. If this happens Boise St. can move up to the #2 spot.

Nevada vs. unlv

Is it too late to cancel this game and find another team to play?

Last year the unlv game was the turning point in our season. It’s when we started putting up amazing numbers, and interestingly enough, it’s been like that for a few years.

This game should have been played earlier or not at all.

Is there a chance unlv will win this game? Sure, but it’s a 0.0001% chance. Now unlv fans are going to talk about how the rebels put up 45 against a New Mexico team, the same team that lost to Oregon 72-0 in the first week of the season. Should the rebel fans feel good about this win? Of course, they need to have some confidence so that we can demoralize them more. The rebels still have no shot in this game, but you won last week, so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and say momentum will score you 10 in this game, ok maybe 13.

NEVADA on the other hand is coming into this game after cracking the top 25 for the first time since 1991, although a scoreboard-poor performance against BYU. And this is a rivalry game, not sure if it’s more so for the fans or the players, if this will be your first trip to one of these games you’ll soon know what I’m talking about.

Every other year, this game is played in Vegas, the ONLY time you will see UNR on the scoreboard and not NEVADA. Ault hates this, as does every NEVADA player, so does every NEVADA fan. Expect Ault to go in there and have no regard for sportsmanship. Kaepernick also needs to make up for the lack of numbers in the BYU game. Expect NEVADA to put up 73 at least, but don’t be surprised if they put up over a hundred…yes I said a hundred.

I expect this game to open in the sportsbooks with NEVADA as a 24 point favorite, which I believe we will easily cover.

Final Score Prediction:

NEVADA 87 – unlv 13

The cannon will stay blue, it's real colors. When you hear them refer to us as UNR don't question our identity, just remember the words from one of the most successful coaches in college football history:

“Our university began in 1874. We are the University of Nevada. For some reason in the mid-70s, this UNR, University of Nevada, Reno deal came in. When I came back to coach, this is the first thing we started on. In '92, we put a major campaign on. We are the Nevada Wolf Pack. That’s what we are.”
- Coach Ault

Nevada vs. BYU Recap and Ranking Implications

Congratulations on the Pack for starting 4-0. Our offense was potent as always, methodical, and unable to be stopped. Our defense stepped it up and was looking good. There are 3 things that have me a little disturbed however:

1. There were too many stupid penalties given up by our team.

2. TURN YOUR HEAD ISAIAH!!!!!!!! (read my blog breaking down the defense if you don’t know what I’m talking about here)

3. Ault…what are you doing? I’m a fan of yours and I’ve always defended you but we needed to run the score up in this game, which we easily could have done, but after going for 4 4th downs you went conservative? I’m having a hard time understanding this, but you’re the coach. Next time however, please take Kaepernick and Vai out of the game, why risk an injury when we’re not trying to pad stats?

Ranking Implications

It was a solid win for the Pack, but the scoreboard doesn’t reflect how uneven this game was. If it weren’t for a stupid fumble and taking it easy in the ENTIRE 2nd half, we could have easily scored the 66 I called, BYU however had no chance of getting the 17 I gave them credit for.

We needed some key losses from teams ranked 20-25 this week and unfortunately we only got 2. This should put us at #24, but there’s a wild card, UCLA. After loosing to #25, they went on to beat #23 and #7 (on the road). Don’t be surprised to see UCLA leap-frog us and push us back to #25. We dominated the time of possession in this game but the score just doesn’t show how one sided this game was, this will hurt us.

In all honestly look for Nevada to be ranked #23-26 (yes, I know we’re ranked #26 right now) when the rankings come out.

The Road to The BCS

If you thought getting a BCS game was easy, you were wrong, especially for a team in a non-BCS conference. There are two ways to get this game though if you’re Nevada, 1 of which is unrealistic:

Unrealistic Way

Beat every team from here on out by 50 or more points, with the exception of Boise St.
Have the #1 Offense in the country.
Have the #1 Defense in the country.
We will beat a few teams by 50 this season, but not everyone from here on out. And honestly having the #1 defense in the country just will not happen.

Realistic Way

1. If you’re not a Boise St. fan by now, become one…until November 26th that is. Boise St. needs to be undefeated when they come into Reno. Then we have to beat them, which this team is very capable of doing. If we don’t win this game, it needs to be close; I’m talking a loss by 3-7 points at max.

2. Hope that Colorado State finishes the season .500 at least.

3. Realize that Cal was a good team and were picked as a legitimate team to play in the Rose Bowl this year. As of now they have 5 top 25 ranked teams left to play this season, they need to win 3 of those and they need to finish the season 8-4 at least.

4. Get lucky. There has to be some key losses by teams ranked ahead of us. After week 5, it gets real hard to move up if everyone ahead of you keeps winning. Just because we’re undefeated doesn’t mean we will leap frog a 1-loss team from the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten.

The BCS rankings have just as much to do with what you do as it does with what the teams you beat do. If Cal and Colorado go sub .500 on the season, the validity of our win diminishes, we also need to pray for UNLV to some how start winning games after we beat them (maybe that should have gone in the unrealistic scenario).

We don’t have to go undefeated to get that BCS game but if we do you can consider it almost a guarantee. We got lucky to get the schedule we got this year, now we just have to capitalize on it. With the exception of the 3 key games I will discuss below, we should be heavy favorites to win the rest, and we need to win by more than what we’re expected to win by. If we’re the favorites by 21 going into a game, winning by 14 is unacceptable; we need to win by 21 or more.

If we get that BCS game, please don’t get mad that it will most likely be against TCU…I guess that’s still a BCS game right?

Key Games

If you thought the rest of the schedule was a cake walk between Cal and Boise St. you’re wrong. There are 4 key games which could kill any chance we have. I urge you not to overlook these teams.

1. Beat BYU this coming weekend. If this game were in Reno, I wouldn’t be so worried about it but its not. This BYU team has not put up great numbers as of late and has lost their last 2 games. Those last two games however were against quality opponents and on the road. Provo is a tough place to play, and their fans are loud. If we don’t win this game, it will be extremely difficult to get the game we want.

3. Win on the island. Playing at Hawaii is not an easy task. Regardless of how much Hawaii has been struggling, they can easily pull out a win on their home turf.

4. Win in the valley. Playing Fresno is a tough task. This team is good and if you didn’t know they are on the verge of being ranked as well. I’m seeing this team being undefeated come November 13th. We don’t win this game and we’re done.

5. Beat Boise. This is something I have never experienced and if you ask me, now is the time. Going into this game we could be ranked as high as #9, losing this game puts us out of the top 10, which means no BCS. Winning and we could be sitting at #6 come selection day. The funny thing is Boise St. might still be ranked ahead of us if they lose. I can see us sitting at #7 and them at #6, or us at #6 and them at #5. If that happens hope the BCS doesn’t shaft us by putting us in a BCS game against Boise St. Could that happen? Well they shafted Boise St. and TCU last year and put them in a BCS game against each other. The BCS doesn’t want to see a non-BCS team beat a BCS team.

Breaking Down the Nevada Defense

Defense

The one part of this team that should scare you is the defense. Nevada hasn’t been known for having the best defense of late. It might be a little too early to call it different but what we have seen this year is a far cry from what we had done at this point just a year ago.

The key player on this defense is #55 Dontay Moch. He will be the WAC’s all time sack leader and tackle’s for a loss record holder by the end of this season. But Dontay does something other than just tackle and make sacks. He commands a double team. In the previous 3 games, teams have been so scared of him that they have double and even triple-teamed him, letting other players go free. If the rest of the defensive line can capitalize on this, it will be a good season for them stats wise.

The linebacking core is now anchored by MLB #52 James-Michael Johnson who made his way from the OLB position. If there was one move that defensive coordinator Andy Buh made that’s making a lot of sense it’s this. James feels at home in this position and has been putting up great numbers. His partner in crime at this level is #33 Brandon Marshall who hasn’t had the numbers he’s capable of lately but is capable of big things. Look for Brandon to come out of this "minor-slump" and really lock down the rest of the linebacking core. A "minor-slump" in the beginning of the season is better than one at the end, so have faith in him.

The secondary position is where Nevada has been tortured. I hope I don’t have to remind you of the long play after long play they gave up last year. This year they have given up a few but substantially less than last year at this point. #8 Marlon Johnson has been playing great at the CB position, he’s the guy who had a pick-6 last week in case you already forgot who he is. #6 Doyle Miller and #20 Duke Williams are also putting up great pressure on opposing receivers and are looking much better than last year. When I re-watched the Cal game, #28 Isaiah Frey had a few stops which could have easily been called pass interference. If he learns to control his hands a little more, this problem will easily be solved and he too is a crucial part of this secondary. #2 Khalid Wooten has also turned his game up and has great hands, look for him to have 3-6 interceptions on the season.

Watch out for #7 Corbin Louks, this Utah transfer could be a huge part of the Wolf Pack defense that we’ve been missing for some time.

When all is said and done, this defense can get the job done. There is one mistake however that they are still making and could cost us precious penalty yards if not games. The secondary has a hard time looking for the ball. The speed is not there to keep up with some of these receivers they have been facing and because of that they are giving up a step or two and getting out of position to make a real play on the ball. If this doesn’t change there will be a lot of penalties. Other offenses have already figured this out as when they get into the redzone they have attempted passing for the touchdown over running for it knowing that our corners will not look back to find the ball. If they fix this, this defense will be a vast improvement from what it was last year. If there is anything holding us back from getting a BCS game, this is it.

Tomorrow I will break down how to get to that BCS game, it's a lot more difficult than you think.

Breaking Down Nevada's Special Teams

Special Teams

If you followed the Pack last year, you know how horrible Ricky Drake was. The kid went 6 of 9 on FG’s and 60 of 64 on extra points! Ricky, you’re a kicker, you spend your practice running a little and kicking the rest of the time. There is no reason you should ever miss an extra point. Now I know we score a lot so you have to kick a lot, so I’ll let you miss one, but missing 4? Ok maybe I’m going a little too hard on you, in reality I’m having a hard time recruiting a kicker in my NCAA Football 2011 game, so maybe it is hard to recruit a good kicker for Nevada. You were so bad that Ault, Mr. Conservative, started going for it on 4th down because he had no faith in you.

Ok enough of the bashing on Ricky; you’re decent on kickoffs this year. But somehow we got a present this year. #40 Anthony Martinez has been doing work. So far he’s 4 for 4 on field goals, and a perfect 20 of 20 on XP’s. And to think he’s only a freshmen. Keep it up I can see us needing a 39 yard field goal at the end of regulation come November 26th.

The rest of the special teams, kick off coverage, punt team, and kick return look solid. I like the confidence Mike Ball is showing to bring the ball out of the endzone. I’m projecting 1 kick off returned for a touchdown this season, which is more than we’ve had in a long time.

Later today, defensive break down

Tomorrow, what you all have been waiting for.

Breaking Down Nevada's Coaching

Coaching

If there’s been one knock on the team over the past years from the fans, it’s been Ault. Coach Ault demands respect and I think the fans are finally going to see that this year. Sure in years past we all questioned some of the calls he made and sure his record in big games aren’t great but let’s face the facts. This guy knows how to win. There’s a reason he’s in the College Football Hall of Fame. If you don’t want to buy that then just think about this…who else could we get? Ault has molded this offense around Kaepernick, and guess what…it works. His offensive scheme, the pistol, has been adopted by many other college, high school, and even NFL teams becuase it works.

Andy Buh has taken over the defensive side of the ball and so far the results are much better than last year. It will be interesting to see what ensues the rest of the season. There are a few minor issues with the secondary that if he fixes will result in 7-14 less points given up each game.

Have faith in Ault Pack fans that's all I ask. And don't forget that Kaepernick can audible when he get's to the line.

Breaking Down the Nevada Offense

There’s a lot of talk going on about a BCS game this year, but is it really a possibility? Abso-f***ing-lutely. To understand how this is possible however, we have to get to know the team. I’ve taken the time to go through 4 aspects of the game, offense, defense, coaching, and special teams. Hopefully I can convince you that this team is for real, but more importantly I hope I can educate you on what we have in our arsenal. I’ll be updating the blog in installments over the next 2 days so come back and make sure you don’t miss anything. And don’t worry, once I post the 4 aspects I’ll tell you what needs to happen to get that BCS game.

Offense

This offense is potent. Plain and simple. There's a reason we were the #1 offense last year and most likely will be again this year.

Let’s start with the quarterback. If Colin Kaepernick was in a BCS conference he would be in the running for the Heisman. #10 is as dual-threat as one can get, in fact he’s a triple threat, the first in college football. He can run like a gazelle, throw like a pitcher (go figure), and evade tacklers like a matador. He continues to put up amazing numbers and even more impressive is the diminishing number of mistakes he's made since his 1st two seasons. This kid is crisp and composed, and to think that for some reason no other school offered him a scholarship for football…hmm.

Vai Taua has been running the ball like a work-horse. #34 has been doing this for two years now and seems more comfortable than ever in this role. But guess what, he’s not the only runner. The Pack is stacked at the RB position, #29 Lampford Mark, #5 Mike Ball, and #35 Courtney Randall are all capable of being 1st string RB’s for us and many other teams out there.

The Receiving core might be the most impressive part of this offense. Most teams are lucky to have 1 WR who can make a difference. We have 5. #15 Rishard Matthews has been seeing the majority of the catches, followed by #82 Tray Session. These two could easily be the #1 wide-out at a Pac-10 school. But it doesn’t stop there #14 Chris Wellington has been seeing less and less balls thrown his way over the past 2 years but is a team player and is there when needed. #19 Malcolm Shepherd only has 4 catches this year but for 71 yards. If there is a worst receiver it’s #19, but he’s not bad at all. You get where I’m going with this? Now here’s the funny thing, our best receiver has the least catches. He’s got the most talent and the best hands on the team. There’s a reason Oregon State had originally laid claim to #4 Brandon Wimberly, this kid is ridiculously good. Last year he put up 733 yards, it doesn’t seem like he’ll get those same numbers this year but he’s only a sophomore. Look for him to be used in the running game as well. Using him on an end-around is a great option as this kid is elusive when he’s 1-on-1. I would start watching him now because you’ll be seeing him on Sunday’s in the near future. Remember Nate Burleson? Well if you ask me, he’s better. When the game is on the line, look for Kaepernick to go to #4 or to Virgil Green.

#85 Virgil Green is going to the NFL. If he wants to that is. I played basketball with him last year and this kid was dunking over me, out rebounding me, and just completely man-handling me. Now I’m no basketball player, but I can hold my own down on the block. Not only does he make and maintain great blocks like a tight end should, but he’s got great hands and maintains possession like a receiver. Think of Visanth Shiancoe of the Minnesota Vikings except better at blocking.

The offensive line is looking strong and is still opening up the holes it was last year. If anything they are more mobile than they were last year. Kaepernick has plenty of time to set up in the pocket (when he wants to) and their picking up the blitz when teams dare to bring it. #62 John Bender is the anchor of this line and his experience is going to be crucial.

Later today I will break down the coaching.

Tomorrow defense and special teams.

Wednesday what needs to happen to get that BCS game.

Nevada vs. BYU

The pack comes into this game ranked #26 in the USA Today poll and #27 in the AP (If USC was not ranked in this poll they would be #26). I would like to thank the voters for these rankings, they could not be any better and I'll explain why.

Nevada travels to Provo for what should be an easy game, but it has the potential to be the complete opposite. On paper Nevada has the Cougars dominated, and the Cougars have looked like a move to D2 would have been a better move than going independent based on what they've done in the past 2 weeks. But Provo is a tough place to play. I've had the honor of watching a BYU game on a neutral field and the fans that traveled were louder than the Nevada fans at last weeks Cal game. And they're sober, which means they are in unison and you don't lose one here and there like some of ours end up in the paddy-wagon.

So why does the ranking mean so much? Because rankings mean everything. If the pack was ranked #25, there would be a sense of "we made it", and with that a little extra confidence and swagger that's not needed yet. Not to mention the added bigger bulls-eye on our backs.

The ranking at #26 is just enough to say "you guys are good, but not sure if you're that good." The bulls-eye is still there but not as big as it could have been. This results in what should be extra motivation to go out there and get what needs to be done, well, done.

As long as the pack doesn't get caught up getting stupid offside penalties (based on crown noise), this should be a walk in the park. Expect ~200 yards from #34 Vai Taua, ~165 from #10 Colin Kaepernick, and ~100 from #29 Lampford Mark. Kaepernick will throw for another 150 but as this game should be over at the end of the 1st, don't expect to see much in the passing game. #85 Virgil Green, and #15 Rishard Matthews will have the bulk of these yards.

Projection:

Nevada 66 - BYU 17

Cal vs. Nevada recap

First of all I want to say congratulations to the team and thanks to the fans. In all my years of Nevada football, I can not remember very many times when the fans were more into the game than they were last night. That being said I have a few things to get off my chest.

1. When Cal tied the game at 7-7, a girl behind me said "This is a whole bunch of sucks. Why did we even come to the game, we're going to lose." First of all, it's the 1st quarter, second of all why did you come to the game if you're just going to be negative?

2. His name is pronounced Kap - er - nick. I'm tired of hearing kapernikus, coppernick, kapernis, and many others. Learn your team's quarterbacks' name.

3. When we are up by 10 in the second quarter, it's too early to start chanting "overrated".

4. When OUR offense is in the redzone, coming into the student section, you don't get as loud as you can. You be quiet so the players can hear the audibles that need to be made.

5. It pissed me off to hear everyone on campus talking about how "we are going to get smoked" and we have no shot of winning before the game, and then after the game everyone is saying how amazing we are. I don't want Nevada to be a band wagon team. If you want to say Nevada is amazing, then come BYU and Boise st., I better not hear "we don't stand a chance".

Now about the game. I did not see it being a blowout, I thought there was a 0.01% chance that that could have happened and I'm sorry for not having more faith in the team. Why do I call it a blowout? Because that's what it was. If it weren't for 2 huge rushing plays given up, and 1 unfortunate fumble by Kaepernick (#10) giving them the ball in the redzone, the score would have been 59 - 10. But mistakes happen and you have to learn from them.

The secondary played pretty damn well against the pass, not great but much better than previous.

Oh and to the Cal fans who kept bringing up that they have the #1 defense in the country? I told you that it's too early to use statistics to make a statement in this game. You played U.C. Davis, the worst team in the FCS. The Nevada offense was methodical and persistent, with hardly any resistance put up from the Cal defense. Sorry, but you're not even close to the #1 ranked defense.

Conversation for the BYU game coming soon.

Picture credit goes to my buddy B.Y.. And for the record, I called Nevada scoring 54 in the game and I'm kinda pissed I was off by 2, where was that safety when we needed it ;)

Cal vs. Nevada only a day away

There's been a lot of talk on some forums that Nevada won't even get 100 yards on the ground in this game. Are you nuts? This is the number one rushing attack in the nation, we only lost our second string running back past year and the new offensive linemen are quickly earning their place in the union. The fact that people think Cal's defense can completely stop the rush is like saying that a 2-inch thick piece of glass will stop a train traveling 60mph. It won't happen. Sure it will put up a good fight but let's be real here.

Amazingly that's not what I want to talk about. I want to talk about the fans and how I find us to have some of the worst fans there are. Now coming from Vegas I know where not the worst but were definitely not where we should be for having the great team that we have. It's gotten better this year but tomorrow will be the real test. The place is sold out, but how heavy is Cal traveling? Is it going to be another Boise st. game where they take over some of our sections? Great fans would never let that happen.

A message to the fans. Tomorrows game is huge. This is a team that WILL capitalize on ANY mistake we make. This means that if it's the 3rd quarter and we're up by 21, on their 3rd downs you better be on your feet and loud. This also means unless we're up by 50 with 5 minutes left in the game...don't leave. We need you. The team needs you. This city needs you.

This season has the potential to be the greatest season in Nevada football history for a long time, so take pride in it and let everyone know that you were there this year for the team. It's time we had the fans this team deserves to have.

Cal vs. Nevada

Let's talk football. This Friday is the game that can make or break the season, up to this point that is. The Pack must go into this game like the season depends on it because it does. I'm also getting tired of hearing people say how the team is going to get "smoked" on Friday by a far superior team. Guess what? they are not far superior, I find these two teams to be very evenly matched. I think it's a little too early to look at scoring and defensive statistics so we won't go there. What I am going to talk about is what needs to happen.

This game is going to be close, I see it a one-possession game going into the 4th quarter. This favors the Wolf Pack due to their depth at running back, after all we are a ground and pound team. But we can not rely on the running game to win the game for us, we have to use the running game to open up the passing game which will be crucial. Virgil Green is arguably one of the best catching tight-end's in college football which will open up the passing game even more, another plus. If you followed the Pack last year, you know who Brandon Wimberly is, unfortunately he hasn't been utilized much this year so far, but there hasn't been a need to. He will be a huge impact on this game's outcome. Expect to see at least 7 receptions from him and somewhere around 100 yards out of him. If the Bears give him any open space, they will quickly see what he can do.

I don't see the running game having any problems in this week's match-up. Vai will get his 100 yards and kaepernick will add on another 100.

The biggest question is the defense. There is no secret that we have had a problem with the secondary but last week was a shimmer of hope. Sure we played a lesser opponent, but in previous years even that opponent would have gotten 2-3 long passes good enough for 6. The secondary last week stood its ground and if they play that good this week, we might be talking about how "we killed Cal" last weekend. Realistically though, they will give up 2 long plays, but that's better than giving up 5. The rest of the defense will play strong and cause the Bear's offense a lot of trouble. Look for MLB #52 James-Michael Johnson and OLB #33 Brandon Marshall to make big stops and big plays once again.

Outcome?

If you still think "Nevada is going to get smoked" just look at the betting lines for this game. I don't make these numbers, professional odds-makers do and they are saying Cal wins BUT only by 3 points. Now look at the over/under for this game, they also think there will be 110 points on the scoreboard by the end of regulation. If you do the math you'll see it doesn't add up, but with a little understanding you can see that they are calling the outcome of the game:

Cal 57 - Nevada 53

What's my call?

When it comes down to it, the Nevada defense is underrated, I'm not saying they are great, I'm saying they are underrated. The defense will make a late stand when they need to and the offense will score one more touchdown to put the game away in the last 2 minutes.

Cal 45 - Nevada 54